Let’s dive into Part 2..
Most Likely To Become the League Heel: Matt
You named your team ‘The Philly Special’ in a Pats homer league. You knew what was going to happen.
Team: The Philly Special
Strengths: RB, QB – Starting out with 3 RBs is likely to land you in the strength column here. I like the strategy in a world where RBs are increasingly scarce. Not a huge Mixon guy but in theory the O-line / offense is improved and he should have the volume to produce. Getting Miles Sanders (as long as he is healthy) in the mid 2nd could be a steal. Gurley is a scary own with his injury history but he was the fantasy RB1 in 2018 (seems like a decade ago). Deshaun Watson is in the QB 3-6 range this year depending on who you ask. The bet on Baker rebounding was cheap so I like that move too. QB will not be a concern this year for Matt.
Weaknesses: WR – I would be sweating with this WR group. In a year with seemingly infinite safe options at WR, Matt ended up with none of them. Odell sucked last year, Deebo, while promising, isn’t a guaranteed WR2 when healthy, nevermind with a broken foot. Matt should get a solid 1.5 games out of DeSean Jackson and who knows what Ruggs is (hopefully good, I have him in dynasty). In a year where it was easy to zig, Matt definitely zagged here, just a bit too much for my tastes.
Values: Miles Sanders (2.06), Evan Engram (8.06) – I was one pick away from snagging Sanders at 2.07. That one hurt the most for me. Sanders has all the attributes that make up a top RB breakout. I truly think he would’ve been a reasonable late 1st rd pick. Nice job. Can Engram stay healthy this year? That is really the only question. Look at his game log last year, particularly early:
The risk is baked into his value but Matt probably got him 1-1.5 rds later than he should have gone. Very nice job here as well.
Reaches: Deshaun Watson (5.07), Deebo Samuel (6.06) – Picking Watson in the 5th isn’t awful, I just don’t see the need to take a QB that early in a QB-wealthy year. Big Ben went in the last round for Christ’s sakes. I just can’t justify this pick when you could have had T.Y., Sutton, Keenan instead. Deebo feels like an enormous reach. After I typed that sentence I looked it up and was pretty surprised to see that his Average ADP is 81 (late 7th). Maybe Matt felt the heat of needing a receiver and pulled the trigger on a guy he really likes? I don’t mind ‘getting your guy,’ I just think you could’ve got him a round (maybe even 2) later. Especially for a guy that everyone knows has a foot injury.
Most Likely to Be Wondering Why He Was Skipped: Justin
I usually just do them in draft order and got really confused when the 8th pick was Dave, who I already did. Not sure what happened here.
Team: FantasyFootballTeam
Strengths: RB, QB – Another one that went 3 RBs in a row to start the draft. Again, I think it is a wise strategy. Dalvin, Aaron Jones and Melvin makes for a rock-solid RB core (even if I don’t think Jones or Melvin will live up to previous years). Russ is an excellent QB and getting Big Ben (who was I think the #2 or 3 ranked QB in Fantasy points in 2018) in the 16th round is just a joke. Great job.
Weaknesses: TE, WR (to a much lesser degree) – “Only 1 tight end? What an idiot!” (Jim, probably) Hunter Henry is pretty good at football but Justin feels a little exposed here with Tyrod at the helm. I wouldn’t feel comfortable here. There is nothing embarrassing about Justin’s WRs, but there is also nothing to get excited about. He has several solid options but he will constantly have to pick the right 2 guys out of about 7 week to week. Flexible sure, but it is hard-mode.
Values: Jarvis Landry (7.05), Marvin Jones (10.08) – Justin took Landry as the WR34, a back-end WR3. Landry is guaranteed to be much better than that, probably a solid mid-range WR2. He took Marvin Jones as the WR49! That is just absurd. He is generally a 800-1000yd guy with 7-10 TDs (excellent in the red zone). Very nice pick.
Reaches: Russ (5.05), Hunter Henry (6.08), N’Keal Harry (9.05) – See what I said above about Deshaun Watson. It is well within a normal range of outcomes for Big Ben (who you got in the 16th) to outscore Russ. Picking a guy in the 6th who has Tyrod throwing to him just feels unnecessary. I don’t think anyone was going to grab Harry before the 12th. This one literally made my jaw drop.
Most Likely to Troll Dumpsters for Backup RBs: George
Team: Just Doulis.
Strengths: WR, Sheer volume of backup RBs – I really like George’s WR group here. MT13 is the best in the business, DJ Moore is a blossoming WR1, T.Y. is a solid gamble with Rivers. Keenan Allen and even Jamison Crowder are really savvy picks considering who their QBs are (guys that rely on their slot WRs). Alright, let’s talk about whatever wacky thing George is doing with RBs here. I think I know what is going on and it is actually an interesting strategy. In a year fraught with doubt over COVID absences and less time for conditioning (leading to more injuries) George is trying to game his way into buying cheap week-to-week RB1s. George is assuming RB starters are going to be out / drop like flies this year so he loaded up on backups. I think it might be a tad extreme but I don’t hate it either.
Weaknesses: QB, RB – Quarterback is not a bad weakness to have since they are just so replaceable. With that said, rolling with just Wentz is pretty optimistic. He is arguably the most fragile / injury prone starting QB. Even Philly-homer Teitelbaum would tell you that. RB is really just a preference thing but I don’t really like your guys. Not a Drake believer and REALLY not a David Johnson believer. Guy flat out lost his job to Chase Edmonds. No thanks.
Values: Keenan Allen (6.04), Darren Waller (8.04) – Keenan gets no respect huh? How many years in a row has he been a low WR1 / high WR2? I get the Tyrod fear but that usually benefits safety net guys like Keenan. 8th round is late for Waller, a guy who had a lot of success even without many TDs.
Reaches: David Johnson (3.09), Darrel Williams (12.04) – Wouldn’t be caught dead with DJ on my team. I’m a little surprised Darrel Williams was drafted at all. Take him in the 15th if you really want him.
(Editor’s Note: I wrote this prior to Thursday night’s game where DJ actually looked pretty good. Fuck it, I still think he sucks. LEAVING IT)
Most Likely to Pop A Chubb for the Hot New Thing: Dags
Everyone gets their fun from fantasy a little differently. Jim likes to auto-draft wacky, terrible teams and tries to win anyway. Jeff likes to pick up a different tight end every week. George likes looking at RB depth charts. Well, Dags? Dags undoubtedly LOVES ‘being right’ about unproven guys. Just look at this team. It is almost entirely composed of guys ‘on the verge of breakout’:
Even the guys not on the verge of breakout that I checked are still SPECULATIVE and have the POTENTIAL to be exciting (Brady, Cam, Jordan Reed). Who am I to tell people how they should get their enjoyment out of fantasy though?
Team: Go Wilfork Yourself
Strengths: RB – There is no doubt that Dags has a strong RB group. He has Chubb and Josh Jacobs as his ‘vets’ at the position and Jonathan Taylor and Dobbins waiting in the wings as rookies ready to show what they got. At least one of the 2 is bound to return some real value
Weaknesses: WR, TE – This WR group would terrify me. I like Scary Terry as much as the next guy but having a Washington receiver as my top option is…scary. Like I said for Matt, there were more than enough “safe” options at WR this year and Dags just missed all of them. A Jarvis Landry or Keenan Allen would have made me feel a little better. This group could be fine but the ‘all question mark’ group at WR isn’t where I would want to be. Tight End as a weakness is generally fine. Regardless, a year 2 guy is not where I would want to be. I see Dags joining Jeff on the waiver wire going TE shopping together.
Values: Josh Jacobs (2.03), Jonathan Taylor (3.10) – If Josh Jacobs can double his catch total he is top-5 pick worthy. He worthy of a 1st round pick and fell to the 2nd for Chris. Jonathan Taylor is no sure thing but he is an extremely talented rookie running behind perhaps the league’s best offensive line. There is a lot to be excited about here.
Reaches: Scary (4.03), Hollywood Brown (5.10) – Again, I like Terry but early 4th is too early and there are safer options I would’ve preferred here. Hollywood is also just way too speculative. He is also not the style of WR that I am a huge fan of. Give me a guy that catches a ton of balls here instead of the home run guy.
Most Likely to Make Reface Gifs Instead of Paying Attention to the Draft: Tim
I was going to make your typical Bears joke here but Tim CRUSHED the under line (5.5) on Bears drafted with only 3. I would have to assume the reason is because he was too busy making Reface gifs of me and George to realize he had no Bears as of the conclusion of round 6.
Team: Da Bad News Bears
Strengths: TE, WR – Tim has the game’s best TE in Travis Kelce. I hate him but damn, he’s good. Tim’s WR squad is very strong. Tyreek is an animal but Tim got a lot of great late round value on guys like Fuller, Sterling Shep, and Sutton too.
Weaknesses: RB, number of Bears, number of Cubs – I don’t really love this RB group. With the exception of Monty they are all committee backs. Seems like a recipe for frustration but that is what happens when your first RB is in Round 3. No Cubs and 3 Bears? Will they even let you back into Chicago?
Values: Will Fuller (8.02), Sterling Shepard (9.11) – What if Will Fuller stayed healthy for a whole year? That is a question we have all probably pondered. Well now, particularly with Hopkins gone, he would be a borderline WR1. If that happens, it is just a gross steal (probably won’t though). Sterling Shepard is the WR1 on a surprisingly offensive team last year. He too has injury concerns (of the head variety unfortunately) but if he can stay fresh, he is an excellent value in the late 9th.
Reaches: Ingram (3.11), Jordan Howard (5.11) – Both of these just reek of desperation to me. Tim kind of had to make these picks because he started WR->TE but that is also exactly the reason I wouldn’t adopt that draft strategy. It is probably going to be a frustrating year at RB here.
Most Likely Guy To Own This Jacket: Rambo
Whoa, you like the Titans there, big guy? A.J. Brown, Jonnu, Tannehill… Did you grab Stephen Gostkowski yet? I think you can still grab Adam Humphries too. The Titans are just such a funny team to be all in on to me.
Team: T1TAnZF4N4LyfE42069 Lord of the Wins
Strengths: WR – Rambo went zero-RB, a strategy I hate personally, but it goes without saying that you will end up strong at receiver here. Davante Adams, Julio, AJB – 3 top-15 WRs is obviously where you want to be at WR here.
Weaknesses: Everything Else – Do you think Rambo even likes this team? I guess with Tannehill and Jonnu, you could at least speculate that they will be fine (doubt it) but the RB situation? Le’veon (yuck), Antonio Gibson (“not the starter”) and Phillip Lindsay (lesser half of a committee in Denver)? Woof. Even if Davante Adams and Julio finish 1 and 2 at WR, I’m not sure this team makes the playoffs. Rambo will pray tonight to his Titans shrine that I am wrong.
Values: Tony Pollard (14.01) – Steal! Don’t let this guy go!
Reaches: Brandin Cooks (5.12), Antonio Gibson (6.01) – Cooks over Keenan, Diggs, Boyd, DeVante Parker? I don’t get it. Gibson could humorously end up being a value but it is just so speculative. You can drop J.D. McKissic, he’s not really the starter. If Gibson is actually good at football he should have no problem shining over all the other bums in Washington. Still, the guy had 33 carries in college…scary.
Good Luck Everyone! Here’s to hoping that we finish the 2020 season!
Eric
MAKE IT RAIN 